Archive for the 'Spring Migration' Category

Predicting Migration

March 8, 2007

The best way to get a handle on upcoming migration events from Cuba is to examine the weather models at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). There are two major models: ETA and GFS (don’t ask me what these acronyms stand for). The ETA model extends out for 84 hours and the GFS for 180 hours. The output from both models can be accessed from the NCAR web site…

ETA - http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/index.php?model=eta

GFS - http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/index.php?model=gfs

In both models the most relevant information for migration is MSLP/Winds. Select the check box for this and the box for “loop all times” to view future predictions. Other weather variables are selectable. The nature of these are fairly transparent.